Can we predict the occurrence of COVID-19 cases? Considerations using a simple model of growth
(چکیده مقاله) :
Abstract :
This study aimed to present a simple model to follow the evolution of the COVID-19 (CV-19)
pandemic in different countries. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) and its first
derivative were employed for this task. The simulations showed that it is almost impossible to
predict based on the initial CV-19 cases (1st 2nd or 3rd weeks) how the pandemic will evolve.
However, the results presented here revealed that this approach can be used as an alternative for
the exponential growth model, traditionally employed as a prediction model, and serve as a
valuable tool for investigating how protective measures are changing the evolution of the
pandemic.
pandemic in different countries. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) and its first
derivative were employed for this task. The simulations showed that it is almost impossible to
predict based on the initial CV-19 cases (1st 2nd or 3rd weeks) how the pandemic will evolve.
However, the results presented here revealed that this approach can be used as an alternative for
the exponential growth model, traditionally employed as a prediction model, and serve as a
valuable tool for investigating how protective measures are changing the evolution of the
pandemic.
(توضیحات تکمیلی) :
(توضیحات تکمیلی) :
Description :
مقاله ISI انگلیسی اصلی
سال انتشار: 2020
فایل ISI انگلیسی اصلی ، با فرمت Pdf
تعداد صفحات فایل ISI انگلیسی اصلی: 19 صفحه
سال انتشار: 2020
فایل ISI انگلیسی اصلی ، با فرمت Pdf
تعداد صفحات فایل ISI انگلیسی اصلی: 19 صفحه
Authors / Descriptions(نویسندگان/توضیحات): سال انتشار 2020 \ مقاله ISI انگلیسی اصلی \ نویسندگان: Fábio A.M. Cássaro, Luiz F. Pires
Sent date(تاریخ ارسال) :
1399/02/04 | 4/23/2020
Number of visits(تعداد بازدید):
913
Key words (کلمات کلیدی):
Coronavirus; Cumulative distribution function; SARS-CoV-2; Pandemic
Number of pages(تعداد صفحات) :
19
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